Electric Vehicle Demand Surges Amid Iran War
Average Marketed Price for new vehicles rises to highest since Biden was president, Catalyst IQ data shows
Two trends are emerging on dealership lots since the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran started: New vehicle prices are going up and electric vehicle sales are accelerating.
Catalyst IQ studies dealership website offerings on a daily basis at a VIN level — essentially a nightly digital census of what’s available for sale at U.S. dealerships. A key measure it produces is the Average Marketed Price — basically the MSRP minus advertised discounts.
Today that number hit $50,354, the highest level since the week of June 2, 2024, according to Rick Wainschel, vice president of analytics at Catalyst IQ.
The AMP held surprisingly steady during the first several months of President Trump’s tariff policies as automakers ate some $35 billion in import taxes.
Prices started rising with the model year changeover and that has only accelerated since the attacks started on Iran at the end of February. Threats to production? Concerns about financing? Generalized pull back on marketing? Could be all of the above.
It’s still early weeks, but the upward trend seems to be accelerating even as we might expect to see advertised promotions ramp up for a strong finish to the month and quarter.
Catalyst IQ data is also showing that more consumers have been coming back to EVs since the war began. Comparing the past two weeks with the previous two weeks, new vehicle “movement” — a proxy for sales — rose 8 percent at franchised dealerships. (The data doesn’t capture direct sales by the likes of Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.)
The breakdown by powertrain is compelling: Gasoline vehicle movement rose 5 percent, hybrids increased 13 percent and EVs jumped 26 percent.
Yes, there may be something of a “dead-cat bounce” effect on the EV data as demand builds back up after last year’s pull-ahead and collapse triggered by the end of federal subsidies.
But with the average gallon of gasoline at $3.977, according to AAA, this sudden surge in sales indicates that more consumers are worried about prices rising and staying high — and willing to buy a first or second EV to avoid the pain at the pump.